Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 13, 2026, 12:18 PM to 2:43 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 13, 2026 at 12:18 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 13.2503. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:43 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1853.3688.72Nov 13, 12:18 PM ET2:43 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1853.3688.72Nov 13, 12:18 PM ET2:43 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:18 PM ET13.2503
Projected value at 2:43 PM ET50.5434
Actual value at 2:43 PM ET66.6567
Projected change across the window+37.2931
Actual change across the window+53.4063
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (1:13 PM ET), where they sat 2.45012 apart, and furthest at bar 25 (2:23 PM ET) with a gap of 74.6176. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (1:38 PM ET), a move of +14.4604. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:23 PM54.595416.7061-37.8893
612:48 PM52.219238.5714-13.6478
121:18 PM21.551830.4843+8.93258
181:48 PM56.669566.9671+10.2976
242:18 PM29.791891.1017+61.3099
292:43 PM50.543466.6567+16.1132

About Stochastic %K on a 5 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.