Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 13, 2026, 9:44 AM to 12:09 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 13, 2026 at 9:44 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 41.1224. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:09 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.65446.4384.2Nov 13, 9:44 AM ET12:09 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 9:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.65446.4384.2Nov 13, 9:44 AM ET12:09 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:44 AM ET41.1224
Projected value at 12:09 PM ET69.6766
Actual value at 12:09 PM ET6.89445
Projected change across the window+28.5542
Actual change across the window-34.228
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise, while it fell instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (10:29 AM ET), where they sat 1.51979 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (12:09 PM ET) with a gap of 62.7822. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (10:59 AM ET), a move of +28.8591. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:49 AM5.3465523.8626+18.516
610:14 AM14.804711.6034-3.20136
1210:44 AM30.05417.7252-12.3288
1811:14 AM69.000444.863-24.1374
2411:44 AM11.18333.105+21.9221
2912:09 PM69.67666.89445-62.7822

About Stochastic %K on a 5 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.