Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 12, 2026, 3:16 PM to 5:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 12, 2026 at 3:16 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 68.2171. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.7842.5474.3Nov 12, 3:16 PM ET5:41 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 3:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.7842.5474.3Nov 12, 3:16 PM ET5:41 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:16 PM ET68.2171
Projected value at 5:41 PM ET49.6259
Actual value at 5:41 PM ET53.7037
Projected change across the window-18.5911
Actual change across the window-14.5134
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.28×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.28 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (4:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.691832 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (3:21 PM ET) with a gap of 58.1909. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (4:01 PM ET), a move of -21.5278. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:21 PM16.227774.4186+58.1909
63:46 PM46.437956.4761+10.0382
124:16 PM61.546830.1561-31.3908
184:46 PM54.853639.3675-15.486
245:16 PM36.19896.52764-29.6713
295:41 PM49.625953.7037+4.07776

About Stochastic %K on a 5 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.