Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 59-minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 12:43 PM to 5:14 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 22, 2026 at 12:43 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 59-minute chart read 16.3998. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:14 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.0347.5278Sep 22, 12:43 PM ET5:14 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:43 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.0347.5278Sep 22, 12:43 PM ET5:14 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:43 PM ET16.3998
Projected value at 5:14 PM ET47.0522
Actual value at 5:14 PM ET39.4738
Projected change across the window+30.6524
Actual change across the window+23.074
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.33×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.33 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (7:36 PM ET), where they sat 0.828262 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (2:29 AM ET) with a gap of 37.0048. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (1:30 AM ET), a move of +27.3016. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:42 PM33.505515.3998-18.1056
66:37 PM45.236753.2646+8.02788
1212:31 AM50.235944.7257-5.51019
186:25 AM44.678380.8506+36.1722
2412:19 PM48.240875.9804+27.7396
295:14 PM47.052239.4738-7.57837

About Stochastic %K on a 59-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 59-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.