Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 59-minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 11:15 AM to 3:46 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 22, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 59-minute chart read 63.4937. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:46 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.12645.8583.58Sep 22, 11:15 AM ET3:46 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:15 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.12645.8583.58Sep 22, 11:15 AM ET3:46 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:15 AM ET63.4937
Projected value at 3:46 PM ET48.306
Actual value at 3:46 PM ET88.6422
Projected change across the window-15.1877
Actual change across the window+25.1485
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (11:15 AM ET), where they sat 3.94963 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (4:57 AM ET) with a gap of 44.6602. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (6:55 AM ET), a move of +22.7654. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:14 PM84.82364.7588-20.0642
65:09 PM69.045547.0912-21.9543
1211:03 PM58.501728.7933-29.7085
184:57 AM47.71983.05958-44.6602
2410:51 AM46.58356.6038+10.0208
293:46 PM48.30688.6422+40.3361

About Stochastic %K on a 59-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 59-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.