Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 59-minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 11:01 AM to 3:32 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 22, 2026 at 11:01 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 59-minute chart read 18.8435. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:32 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.3147.4186.5Sep 22, 11:01 AM ET3:32 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:01 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.3147.4186.5Sep 22, 11:01 AM ET3:32 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:01 AM ET18.8435
Projected value at 3:32 PM ET46.9158
Actual value at 3:32 PM ET49.8039
Projected change across the window+28.0723
Actual change across the window+30.9604
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.91×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.91 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (3:32 PM ET), where they sat 2.88817 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (2:45 AM ET) with a gap of 44.3205. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (4:55 PM ET), a move of +22.7654. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:00 PM32.941325.4002-7.5411
64:55 PM41.048336.2525-4.79588
1210:49 PM48.198774.7056+26.5068
184:43 AM47.522970.202+22.6791
2410:37 AM49.564386.9733+37.409
293:32 PM46.915849.8039+2.88817

About Stochastic %K on a 59-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 59-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.