Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 500 minute chart, October 21, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 21, 2026, 2:53 PM to 4:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On October 21, 2026 at 2:53 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 500 minute chart read 33.7349. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.0951.6190.12Oct 21, 2:53 PM ET4:33 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:53 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.0951.6190.12Oct 21, 2:53 PM ET4:33 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:53 PM ET33.7349
Projected value at 4:33 PM ET20.7642
Actual value at 4:33 PM ET7.92165
Projected change across the window-12.9708
Actual change across the window-25.8133
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.50×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.50 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (11:33 AM ET), where they sat 1.24005 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:53 PM ET) with a gap of 57.4571. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (3:53 PM ET), a move of +19.3345. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:13 PM90.709849.3976-41.3122
64:53 PM76.857186.4787+9.6216
126:53 PM58.189483.1117+24.9223
188:53 PM82.980591.6243+8.64385
2410:53 PM33.022341.5552+8.53284
294:33 PM20.76427.92165-12.8425

About Stochastic %K on a 500 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 500 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 250 hours of trading, so the window above describes 250 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.