Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 6, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 6, 2026, 10:41 PM to 11:10 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 6, 2026 at 10:41 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 16.2861. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:10 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.9247.0274.11Oct 6, 10:41 PM ET11:10 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 10:41 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.9247.0274.11Oct 6, 10:41 PM ET11:10 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:41 PM ET16.2861
Projected value at 11:10 PM ET60.5305
Actual value at 11:10 PM ET77.0619
Projected change across the window+44.2444
Actual change across the window+60.7758
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.73×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.73 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (11:08 PM ET), where they sat 0.991101 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:41 PM ET) with a gap of 61.4608. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (11:09 PM ET), a move of +16.5055. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:42 PM73.473616.6228-56.8509
610:47 PM57.311525.339-31.9725
1210:53 PM61.87441.8879-19.9861
1810:59 PM66.735244.2529-22.4823
2411:05 PM60.520841.2235-19.2973
2911:10 PM60.530577.0619+16.5314

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.