Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 6, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 6, 2026, 8:00 PM to 8:29 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 81.4201. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:29 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.6352.1686.7Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET8:29 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:00 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.6352.1686.7Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET8:29 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:00 PM ET81.4201
Projected value at 8:29 PM ET46.7008
Actual value at 8:29 PM ET23.8982
Projected change across the window-34.7192
Actual change across the window-57.5219
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (8:20 PM ET), where they sat 0.162887 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (8:04 PM ET) with a gap of 70.3712. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (8:12 PM ET), a move of -19.1954. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:01 PM12.987780.9028+67.9151
68:06 PM22.567485.7504+63.1829
128:12 PM28.917772.1429+43.2251
188:18 PM31.795333.3766+1.58136
248:24 PM36.699524.3302-12.3693
298:29 PM46.700823.8982-22.8027

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.