Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 2, 2026, 1:15 PM to 1:44 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 2, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.8554. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:44 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.654.990.2Oct 2, 1:15 PM ET1:44 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 1:15 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.654.990.2Oct 2, 1:15 PM ET1:44 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:15 PM ET14.8554
Projected value at 1:44 PM ET47.7398
Actual value at 1:44 PM ET46.5506
Projected change across the window+32.8844
Actual change across the window+31.6951
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.04×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.04 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (1:44 PM ET), where they sat 1.18929 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (1:34 PM ET) with a gap of 43.3824. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (1:37 PM ET), a move of -16.9411. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:16 PM20.27317.2535-3.01951
61:21 PM40.271255.7822+15.511
121:27 PM52.582394.784+42.2016
181:33 PM52.239590.4762+38.2367
241:39 PM51.972360.4885+8.51622
291:44 PM47.739846.5506-1.18929

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.