Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 8:53 AM to 9:22 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 8:53 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 72.471. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:22 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.80744.6981.58Oct 1, 8:53 AM ET9:22 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.80744.6981.58Oct 1, 8:53 AM ET9:22 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:53 AM ET72.471
Projected value at 9:22 AM ET38.8341
Actual value at 9:22 AM ET28.2745
Projected change across the window-33.6369
Actual change across the window-44.1965
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.76 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (9:21 AM ET), where they sat 4.1737 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (8:53 AM ET) with a gap of 69.6175. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (9:18 AM ET), a move of +23.8846. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:54 AM5.4495270.8126+65.3631
68:59 AM15.113349.4133+34.3
129:05 AM23.375180.6711+57.2961
189:11 AM29.289322.8013-6.488
249:17 AM36.245131.1154-5.12968
299:22 AM38.834128.2745-10.5596

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.