Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 4:53 AM to 5:22 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 4:53 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 95.0512. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:22 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.9959.4190.83Oct 1, 4:53 AM ET5:22 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.9959.4190.83Oct 1, 4:53 AM ET5:22 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:53 AM ET95.0512
Projected value at 5:22 AM ET53.2622
Actual value at 5:22 AM ET23.7726
Projected change across the window-41.789
Actual change across the window-71.2785
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (5:18 AM ET), where they sat 0.0234933 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (5:10 AM ET) with a gap of 32.2144. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (5:13 AM ET), a move of -12.1611. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:54 AM77.016294.3782+17.362
64:59 AM69.05492.209+23.155
125:05 AM53.224352.7322-0.492019
185:11 AM52.640884.798+32.1572
245:17 AM56.355166.0081+9.65301
295:22 AM53.262223.7726-29.4896

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.