Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 11:32 PM to 12:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 11:32 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 94.9791. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.754.290.7Sep 30, 11:32 PM ET12:01 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.754.290.7Sep 30, 11:32 PM ET12:01 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:32 PM ET94.9791
Projected value at 12:01 AM ET48.0424
Actual value at 12:01 AM ET68.2828
Projected change across the window-46.9367
Actual change across the window-26.6963
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.76 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (11:59 PM ET), where they sat 2.98297 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:32 PM ET) with a gap of 77.9294. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (11:50 PM ET), a move of -16.6667. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:33 PM15.632183.9023+68.2703
611:38 PM25.691381.0588+55.3675
1211:44 PM31.597178.2609+46.6638
1811:50 PM37.644217.5439-20.1004
2411:56 PM37.97916.035-21.944
2912:01 AM48.042468.2828+20.2404

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.