Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 9:42 PM to 10:11 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 9:42 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 40.5509. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:11 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

32.761.6490.57Sep 30, 9:42 PM ET10:11 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 9:42 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

32.761.6490.57Sep 30, 9:42 PM ET10:11 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:42 PM ET40.5509
Projected value at 10:11 PM ET54.0347
Actual value at 10:11 PM ET66.8888
Projected change across the window+13.4839
Actual change across the window+26.3379
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (9:42 PM ET), where they sat 7.08719 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (9:49 PM ET) with a gap of 45.4384. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (9:47 PM ET), a move of +20.6667. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:43 PM28.816939.6715+10.8546
69:48 PM34.837176.8182+41.981
129:54 PM51.762781.978+30.2154
1810:00 PM52.369378.734+26.3648
2410:06 PM52.325572.8509+20.5255
2910:11 PM54.034766.8888+12.854

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.