Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 9:01 PM to 9:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 9:01 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.1253. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.2747.5382.8Sep 30, 9:01 PM ET9:30 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 9:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.2747.5382.8Sep 30, 9:01 PM ET9:30 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:01 PM ET14.1253
Projected value at 9:30 PM ET66.9437
Actual value at 9:30 PM ET77.3663
Projected change across the window+52.8184
Actual change across the window+63.241
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.84×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.84 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (9:26 PM ET), where they sat 5.15246 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (9:08 PM ET) with a gap of 76.7275. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (9:25 PM ET), a move of +28.8342. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:02 PM87.080717.2387-69.8419
69:07 PM85.00329.81391-75.1893
129:13 PM73.269331.104-42.1653
189:19 PM71.119415.3959-55.7235
249:25 PM70.874354.8718-16.0025
299:30 PM66.943777.3663+10.4226

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.