Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 4:53 PM to 5:22 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 4:53 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 5.12964. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:22 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.14143.2778.39Sep 30, 4:53 PM ET5:22 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:53 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.14143.2778.39Sep 30, 4:53 PM ET5:22 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:53 PM ET5.12964
Projected value at 5:22 PM ET50.3981
Actual value at 5:22 PM ET57.3431
Projected change across the window+45.2685
Actual change across the window+52.2135
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (5:12 PM ET), where they sat 2.10046 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (4:54 PM ET) with a gap of 46.2332. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (5:09 PM ET), a move of +25.4545. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:54 PM49.65663.42343-46.2332
64:59 PM47.657724.4747-23.1829
125:05 PM43.272824.6377-18.6351
185:11 PM48.065153.2111+5.14604
245:17 PM46.788480.3279+33.5395
295:22 PM50.398157.3431+6.94501

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.