Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 4:04 PM to 4:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 4:04 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 64.9044. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.1652.4286.69Sep 30, 4:04 PM ET4:33 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.1652.4286.69Sep 30, 4:04 PM ET4:33 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:04 PM ET64.9044
Projected value at 4:33 PM ET46.7397
Actual value at 4:33 PM ET79.5756
Projected change across the window-18.1647
Actual change across the window+14.6712
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.24×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.24 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (4:20 PM ET), where they sat 1.67316 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (4:18 PM ET) with a gap of 49.3034. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (4:20 PM ET), a move of -27.5746. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:05 PM21.57357.3431+35.7701
64:10 PM26.451152.3952+25.944
124:16 PM42.803571.3251+28.5215
184:22 PM49.569317.5439-32.0254
244:28 PM49.478377.5572+28.0789
294:33 PM46.739779.5756+32.8359

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.