Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:09 PM to 12:38 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:09 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 6.46267. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:38 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

6.89842.3677.82Sep 30, 12:09 PM ET12:38 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

6.89842.3677.82Sep 30, 12:09 PM ET12:38 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:09 PM ET6.46267
Projected value at 12:38 PM ET52.8227
Actual value at 12:38 PM ET70.7792
Projected change across the window+46.36
Actual change across the window+64.3166
Bars moving the same direction21 of 28
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.72×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.72 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 75% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (12:36 PM ET), where they sat 1.98941 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (12:10 PM ET) with a gap of 73.1733. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (12:18 PM ET), a move of +16.269. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:10 PM82.58449.41111-73.1733
612:15 PM67.122236.607-30.5153
1212:21 PM62.007140.5-21.5071
1812:27 PM56.550110.9214-45.6286
2412:33 PM53.675420.9859-32.6895
2912:38 PM52.822770.7792+17.9566

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.