Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 5:47 AM to 6:16 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 5:47 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.1462. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:16 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.9852.0188.03Sep 30, 5:47 AM ET6:16 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 5:47 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.9852.0188.03Sep 30, 5:47 AM ET6:16 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:47 AM ET11.1462
Projected value at 6:16 AM ET38.3814
Actual value at 6:16 AM ET28.4717
Projected change across the window+27.2351
Actual change across the window+17.3255
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.57×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.57 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (5:50 AM ET), where they sat 0.716354 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (5:58 AM ET) with a gap of 55.8774. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (5:56 AM ET), a move of +14.6119. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:48 AM26.517516.0577-10.4598
65:53 AM31.513440.5257+9.01232
125:59 AM36.104790.4802+54.3754
186:05 AM37.56772.1133+34.5463
246:11 AM37.900961.9686+24.0677
296:16 AM38.381428.4717-9.90969

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.