Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 4:20 AM to 4:49 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 4:20 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 73.3266. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:49 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.8451.5885.32Sep 30, 4:20 AM ET4:49 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:20 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.8451.5885.32Sep 30, 4:20 AM ET4:49 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:20 AM ET73.3266
Projected value at 4:49 AM ET42.8811
Actual value at 4:49 AM ET41.5762
Projected change across the window-30.4456
Actual change across the window-31.7504
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.96×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.96 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (4:46 AM ET), where they sat 0.941757 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (4:28 AM ET) with a gap of 68.4273. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (4:37 AM ET), a move of -26.8093. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:21 AM13.30562.6984+49.3934
64:26 AM22.296989.8473+67.5504
124:32 AM22.552559.5506+36.9981
184:38 AM31.261224.7023-6.55889
244:44 AM35.109766.7706+31.6609
294:49 AM42.881141.5762-1.30489

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.