Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 1:51 AM to 2:20 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 1:51 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 58.9261. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:20 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.1954.4982.79Sep 30, 1:51 AM ET2:20 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 1:51 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.1954.4982.79Sep 30, 1:51 AM ET2:20 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:51 AM ET58.9261
Projected value at 2:20 AM ET51.0985
Actual value at 2:20 AM ET50.7407
Projected change across the window-7.82768
Actual change across the window-8.1854
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.96×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.96 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (2:20 AM ET), where they sat 0.357723 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (1:52 AM ET) with a gap of 36.6717. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (2:06 AM ET), a move of +27.8689. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:52 AM28.99165.6627+36.6717
61:57 AM40.666848.7395+8.0727
122:03 AM50.786932.5137-18.2732
182:09 AM52.105484.6246+32.5192
242:15 AM50.968354.4061+3.43785
292:20 AM51.098550.7407-0.357723

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.