Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:25 AM to 12:54 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:25 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 29.4118. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:54 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.9751.6988.41Sep 30, 12:25 AM ET12:54 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:25 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.9751.6988.41Sep 30, 12:25 AM ET12:54 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:25 AM ET29.4118
Projected value at 12:54 AM ET65.1785
Actual value at 12:54 AM ET75.0069
Projected change across the window+35.7668
Actual change across the window+45.5951
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.78×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.78 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (12:35 AM ET), where they sat 0.259144 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (12:31 AM ET) with a gap of 50.4551. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (12:34 AM ET), a move of +22.4276. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:26 AM44.421726.4706-17.9511
612:31 AM60.495410.0404-50.4551
1212:37 AM67.060184.4694+17.4092
1812:43 AM64.735684.4334+19.6978
2412:49 AM62.242780.362+18.1193
2912:54 AM65.178575.0069+9.82831

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.