Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 11:39 PM to 12:08 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 29, 2026 at 11:39 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 96.2121. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:08 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.9855.2592.52Sep 29, 11:39 PM ET12:08 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:39 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.9855.2592.52Sep 29, 11:39 PM ET12:08 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:39 PM ET96.2121
Projected value at 12:08 AM ET59.9916
Actual value at 12:08 AM ET74.3169
Projected change across the window-36.2205
Actual change across the window-21.8952
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.65×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.65 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (11:39 PM ET), where they sat 3.30052 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (11:47 PM ET) with a gap of 48.9832. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (11:45 PM ET), a move of -24.3152. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:40 PM90.376197.5306+7.15444
611:45 PM82.735337.7556-44.9797
1211:51 PM73.7137.1308-36.5792
1811:57 PM62.75532.942-29.8131
2412:03 AM59.426993.3333+33.9064
2912:08 AM59.991674.3169+14.3253

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.