Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 9:18 PM to 9:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 9:18 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 68.1111. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.0948.980.71Sep 29, 9:18 PM ET9:47 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 9:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.0948.980.71Sep 29, 9:18 PM ET9:47 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:18 PM ET68.1111
Projected value at 9:47 PM ET32.4782
Actual value at 9:47 PM ET50.1048
Projected change across the window-35.633
Actual change across the window-18.0063
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.98×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.98 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (9:39 PM ET), where they sat 5.31518 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (9:18 PM ET) with a gap of 55.2901. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (9:19 PM ET), a move of -21.5041. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:19 PM15.083946.607+31.5231
69:24 PM26.498456.1508+29.6524
129:30 PM28.424764.7059+36.2812
189:36 PM31.455658.5219+27.0662
249:42 PM36.091583.9883+47.8968
299:47 PM32.478250.1048+17.6267

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.