Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 9:02 PM to 9:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 9:02 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 80.543. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.33344.7880.22Sep 29, 9:02 PM ET9:31 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 9:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.33344.7880.22Sep 29, 9:02 PM ET9:31 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:02 PM ET80.543
Projected value at 9:31 PM ET36.1545
Actual value at 9:31 PM ET57.958
Projected change across the window-44.3884
Actual change across the window-22.585
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.97×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.97 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (9:17 PM ET), where they sat 0.713864 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (9:11 PM ET) with a gap of 47.0673. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (9:10 PM ET), a move of +18.3859. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:03 PM57.012968.0241+11.0112
69:08 PM45.483347.4696+1.98624
129:14 PM32.693954.5073+21.8134
189:20 PM27.49894.57334-22.9255
249:26 PM36.630759.0491+22.4185
299:31 PM36.154557.958+21.8034

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.