Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 6:35 PM to 7:04 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 82.3968. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:04 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.6151.6587.69Sep 29, 6:35 PM ET7:04 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 6:35 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.6151.6587.69Sep 29, 6:35 PM ET7:04 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:35 PM ET82.3968
Projected value at 7:04 PM ET33.9336
Actual value at 7:04 PM ET56.434
Projected change across the window-48.4633
Actual change across the window-25.9628
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (6:52 PM ET), where they sat 9.27084 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (6:42 PM ET) with a gap of 69.9964. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (6:54 PM ET), a move of +15.8655. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:36 PM13.294776.3695+63.0749
66:41 PM16.113384.9758+68.8625
126:47 PM32.16277.4459+45.2839
186:53 PM30.543353.8528+23.3095
246:59 PM31.065169.2123+38.1472
297:04 PM33.933656.434+22.5005

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.