Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 4:29 PM to 4:58 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 4:29 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 74.1201. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:58 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.3655.3889.4Sep 29, 4:29 PM ET4:58 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:29 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.3655.3889.4Sep 29, 4:29 PM ET4:58 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:29 PM ET74.1201
Projected value at 4:58 PM ET60.0961
Actual value at 4:58 PM ET46.6948
Projected change across the window-14.024
Actual change across the window-27.4253
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (4:32 PM ET), where they sat 0.227388 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (4:37 PM ET) with a gap of 48.2476. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (4:52 PM ET), a move of -22.973. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:30 PM93.558988.6562-4.9027
64:35 PM83.722443.4466-40.2758
124:41 PM68.362829.4005-38.9623
184:47 PM60.917373.1373+12.2199
244:53 PM64.49824.9052-39.5928
294:58 PM60.096146.6948-13.4013

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.