Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 3:10 PM to 3:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 29, 2026 at 3:10 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 12.2288. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.6548.1783.68Sep 29, 3:10 PM ET3:39 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 3:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.6548.1783.68Sep 29, 3:10 PM ET3:39 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:10 PM ET12.2288
Projected value at 3:39 PM ET50.0744
Actual value at 3:39 PM ET38.4615
Projected change across the window+37.8456
Actual change across the window+26.2327
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.44×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.44 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (3:34 PM ET), where they sat 3.87731 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (3:24 PM ET) with a gap of 36.6366. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (3:22 PM ET), a move of +27.6348. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:11 PM32.178813.2686-18.9102
63:16 PM37.91919.64123-28.2779
123:22 PM48.382956.9604+8.57754
183:28 PM51.534883.6879+32.1532
243:34 PM52.432248.5549-3.87731
293:39 PM50.074438.4615-11.6128

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.