Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 3:01 PM to 3:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 3:01 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.4067. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.7351.9384.12Sep 29, 3:01 PM ET3:30 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 3:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.7351.9384.12Sep 29, 3:01 PM ET3:30 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:01 PM ET15.4067
Projected value at 3:30 PM ET60.4799
Actual value at 3:30 PM ET88.2661
Projected change across the window+45.0733
Actual change across the window+72.8594
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.62×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.62 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (3:11 PM ET), where they sat 1.72614 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:01 PM ET) with a gap of 64.3677. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (3:04 PM ET), a move of +27.6348. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:02 PM82.508921.7099-60.799
63:07 PM76.421388.4462+12.0249
123:13 PM66.334522.3247-44.0097
183:19 PM65.215132.4568-32.7583
243:25 PM65.862255.0213-10.8409
293:30 PM60.479988.2661+27.7862

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.