Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 10:15 AM to 10:44 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 73.5216. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:44 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.6858.4890.28Sep 29, 10:15 AM ET10:44 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 10:15 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.6858.4890.28Sep 29, 10:15 AM ET10:44 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:15 AM ET73.5216
Projected value at 10:44 AM ET60.9979
Actual value at 10:44 AM ET86.3502
Projected change across the window-12.5237
Actual change across the window+12.8286
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.98×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.98 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (10:39 AM ET), where they sat 0.45437 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (10:31 AM ET) with a gap of 36.0005. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (10:34 AM ET), a move of +19.1786. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:16 AM71.310386.1568+14.8465
610:21 AM71.765693.7382+21.9726
1210:27 AM61.407267.5052+6.098
1810:33 AM59.613538.1608-21.4527
2410:39 AM60.332260.7866+0.45437
2910:44 AM60.997986.3502+25.3523

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.