Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 8:09 AM to 8:38 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.6858. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:38 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.3742.870.24Sep 29, 8:09 AM ET8:38 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:09 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.3742.870.24Sep 29, 8:09 AM ET8:38 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:09 AM ET11.6858
Projected value at 8:38 AM ET58.6426
Actual value at 8:38 AM ET73.9218
Projected change across the window+46.9568
Actual change across the window+62.2359
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.75×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.75 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (8:15 AM ET), where they sat 1.24474 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (8:19 AM ET) with a gap of 49.2775. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (8:18 AM ET), a move of -21.8065. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:10 AM50.850214.1231-36.7271
68:15 AM61.874163.1188+1.24474
128:21 AM62.837815.5097-47.3281
188:27 AM56.593816.6276-39.9662
248:33 AM59.565723.1149-36.4508
298:38 AM58.642673.9218+15.2792

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.