Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 8:08 AM to 8:37 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 8:08 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.1231. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:37 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.5249.2381.94Sep 29, 8:08 AM ET8:37 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:08 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.5249.2381.94Sep 29, 8:08 AM ET8:37 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:08 AM ET14.1231
Projected value at 8:37 AM ET60.4154
Actual value at 8:37 AM ET86.3361
Projected change across the window+46.2923
Actual change across the window+72.213
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.64×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.64 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (8:35 AM ET), where they sat 2.14849 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (8:17 AM ET) with a gap of 50.6641. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (8:16 AM ET), a move of -21.8065. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:09 AM65.674820.5107-45.1641
68:14 AM65.369669.7368+4.36727
128:20 AM58.053123.3863-34.6668
188:26 AM56.486415.7649-40.7214
248:32 AM57.470131.5218-25.9483
298:37 AM60.415486.3361+25.9207

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.