Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 7:48 AM to 8:17 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 7:48 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 12.4074. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:17 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.3554.1690.96Sep 29, 7:48 AM ET8:17 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:48 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.3554.1690.96Sep 29, 7:48 AM ET8:17 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:48 AM ET12.4074
Projected value at 8:17 AM ET61.3119
Actual value at 8:17 AM ET60.8333
Projected change across the window+48.9045
Actual change across the window+48.4259
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.01×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.01 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (8:17 AM ET), where they sat 0.478545 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (8:03 AM ET) with a gap of 39.7239. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (7:57 AM ET), a move of +16.7999. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:49 AM41.115116.1111-25.004
67:54 AM55.70138.7384-16.9627
128:00 AM57.716595.3372+37.6207
188:06 AM56.95973.2597+16.3007
248:12 AM58.422587.3264+28.9039
298:17 AM61.311960.8333-0.478545

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.