Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 5:10 AM to 5:39 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 5:10 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 29.484. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:39 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.0250.1279.23Sep 29, 5:10 AM ET5:39 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 5:10 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.0250.1279.23Sep 29, 5:10 AM ET5:39 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:10 AM ET29.484
Projected value at 5:39 AM ET35.3775
Actual value at 5:39 AM ET23.2031
Projected change across the window+5.89346
Actual change across the window-6.28096
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.94×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise, while it fell instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.94 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (5:33 AM ET), where they sat 0.15195 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (5:18 AM ET) with a gap of 49.1142. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (5:30 AM ET), a move of -20.3463. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:11 AM32.493827.9133-4.58053
65:16 AM27.548748.1183+20.5696
125:22 AM35.305458.5761+23.2706
185:28 AM38.792969.1342+30.3413
245:34 AM40.091648.6842+8.59261
295:39 AM35.377523.2031-12.1744

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.