Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 2:20 AM to 2:49 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 2:20 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 91.3569. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:49 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.5253.1886.84Sep 29, 2:20 AM ET2:49 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:20 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.5253.1886.84Sep 29, 2:20 AM ET2:49 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:20 AM ET91.3569
Projected value at 2:49 AM ET45.7191
Actual value at 2:49 AM ET33.7663
Projected change across the window-45.6378
Actual change across the window-57.5906
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.79×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.79 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (2:48 AM ET), where they sat 0.869135 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (2:33 AM ET) with a gap of 47.7273. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (2:28 AM ET), a move of -24.1964. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:21 AM57.454485.8543+28.3998
62:26 AM56.623287.7208+31.0976
122:32 AM64.596123.3238-41.2722
182:38 AM65.513247.5728-17.9404
242:44 AM53.715947.6584-6.05748
292:49 AM45.719133.7663-11.9528

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.