Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 12:11 AM to 12:40 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 12:11 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 55.914. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:40 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.9743.7771.57Sep 29, 12:11 AM ET12:40 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:11 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.9743.7771.57Sep 29, 12:11 AM ET12:40 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:11 AM ET55.914
Projected value at 12:40 AM ET43.5616
Actual value at 12:40 AM ET72.8682
Projected change across the window-12.3524
Actual change across the window+16.9542
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.73×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.73 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (12:29 AM ET), where they sat 0.798992 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (12:13 AM ET) with a gap of 51.049. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (12:29 AM ET), a move of -17.7999. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:12 AM21.945972.9032+50.9573
612:17 AM27.160549.2176+22.0572
1212:23 AM28.007256.621+28.6138
1812:29 AM29.144529.9435+0.798992
2412:35 AM35.235514.4735-20.762
2912:40 AM43.561672.8682+29.3066

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.