Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 4:09 PM to 4:38 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 79.9829. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:38 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.9649.0190.07Sep 28, 4:09 PM ET4:38 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.9649.0190.07Sep 28, 4:09 PM ET4:38 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:09 PM ET79.9829
Projected value at 4:38 PM ET46.9097
Actual value at 4:38 PM ET45.5768
Projected change across the window-33.0732
Actual change across the window-34.4061
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.96×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.96 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (4:38 PM ET), where they sat 1.3329 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (4:20 PM ET) with a gap of 44.9326. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (4:38 PM ET), a move of +30.2169. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:10 PM35.163977.0043+41.8404
64:15 PM36.631160.0324+23.4013
124:21 PM47.25591.7344+44.4794
184:27 PM49.516439.6247-9.89172
244:33 PM47.228523.1788-24.0497
294:38 PM46.909745.5768-1.3329

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.