Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 8:10 PM to 8:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 90.7246. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.8248.3685.89Sep 27, 8:10 PM ET8:39 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.8248.3685.89Sep 27, 8:10 PM ET8:39 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:10 PM ET90.7246
Projected value at 8:39 PM ET48.4989
Actual value at 8:39 PM ET18.5165
Projected change across the window-42.2257
Actual change across the window-72.2082
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.58 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (8:13 PM ET), where they sat 0.442959 apart, and furthest at bar 14 (8:24 PM ET) with a gap of 36.5862. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (8:16 PM ET), a move of -19.992. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:11 PM84.697490.9309+6.23356
68:16 PM56.721744.6545-12.0672
128:22 PM45.508411.1922-34.3162
188:28 PM43.51246.4289+2.91696
248:34 PM44.409757.7207+13.3109
298:39 PM48.498918.5165-29.9825

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.