Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 8:01 PM to 8:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 17.4525. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.7939.6369.48Sep 27, 8:01 PM ET8:30 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 8:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.7939.6369.48Sep 27, 8:01 PM ET8:30 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:01 PM ET17.4525
Projected value at 8:30 PM ET55.0043
Actual value at 8:30 PM ET66.3176
Projected change across the window+37.5518
Actual change across the window+48.865
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (8:11 PM ET), where they sat 0.025225 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (8:01 PM ET) with a gap of 56.0017. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (8:24 PM ET), a move of +17.5893. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:02 PM60.255919.2651-40.9908
68:07 PM54.871820.0333-34.8385
128:13 PM38.626739.1068+0.480073
188:19 PM43.495940.2062-3.2897
248:25 PM45.833553.7217+7.88821
298:30 PM55.004366.3176+11.3133

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.