Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 4:19 PM to 4:48 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 4:19 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 21.4129. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:48 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.2556.6493.04Sep 25, 4:19 PM ET4:48 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:19 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.2556.6493.04Sep 25, 4:19 PM ET4:48 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:19 PM ET21.4129
Projected value at 4:48 PM ET49.973
Actual value at 4:48 PM ET56.4616
Projected change across the window+28.5602
Actual change across the window+35.0487
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.81×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.81 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 1 (4:19 PM ET), where they sat 2.05818 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (4:34 PM ET) with a gap of 50.9194. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (4:20 PM ET), a move of +26.9228. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:20 PM23.210248.3357+25.1255
64:25 PM41.861185.1371+43.2761
124:31 PM48.891794.9891+46.0974
184:37 PM48.16895.2226+47.0546
244:43 PM52.473161.5278+9.05472
294:48 PM49.97356.4616+6.48858

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.