Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 1:53 PM to 2:22 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 1:53 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 91.8827. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:22 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

31.4660.1188.77Sep 16, 1:53 PM ET2:22 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 1:53 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

31.4660.1188.77Sep 16, 1:53 PM ET2:22 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:53 PM ET91.8827
Projected value at 2:22 PM ET49.4455
Actual value at 2:22 PM ET51.8817
Projected change across the window-42.4372
Actual change across the window-40.0009
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (2:15 PM ET), where they sat 0.593993 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:53 PM ET) with a gap of 47.5827. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (2:14 PM ET), a move of +20.4499. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:54 PM52.770789.966+37.1953
61:59 PM56.416591.6832+35.2668
122:05 PM50.629656.4103+5.78066
182:11 PM47.113542.3313-4.7822
242:17 PM48.769234.6774-14.0918
292:22 PM49.445551.8817+2.43627

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.