Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 3:18 PM to 3:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 15, 2026 at 3:18 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 85.2584. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.6349.6989.75Sep 15, 3:18 PM ET3:47 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 3:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.6349.6989.75Sep 15, 3:18 PM ET3:47 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:18 PM ET85.2584
Projected value at 3:47 PM ET50.6771
Actual value at 3:47 PM ET16.9967
Projected change across the window-34.5813
Actual change across the window-68.2617
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (3:35 PM ET), where they sat 1.23353 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:18 PM ET) with a gap of 61.5445. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (3:34 PM ET), a move of -15.5542. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:19 PM28.126374.0205+45.8941
63:24 PM41.346859.3364+17.9896
123:30 PM50.869691.5569+40.6873
183:36 PM51.183941.2216-9.96232
243:42 PM50.354618.9722-31.3824
293:47 PM50.677116.9967-33.6804

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.