Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 15, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 15, 2026, 2:10 PM to 2:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 15, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.515. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

6.99142.5378.07Sep 15, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

6.99142.5378.07Sep 15, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:10 PM ET13.515
Projected value at 2:39 PM ET50.2771
Actual value at 2:39 PM ET79.881
Projected change across the window+36.7621
Actual change across the window+66.3659
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.55 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (2:26 PM ET), where they sat 0.349225 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:10 PM ET) with a gap of 64.9876. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (2:18 PM ET), a move of +15.4217. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:11 PM75.172820.4762-54.6966
62:16 PM57.264112.7616-44.5026
122:22 PM52.168252.8248+0.656618
182:28 PM51.665533.6283-18.0372
242:34 PM51.204882.8424+31.6376
292:39 PM50.277179.881+29.6038

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.