Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 4:12 PM to 4:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 4:12 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 23.4483. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.6549.3985.13Sep 3, 4:12 PM ET4:41 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.6549.3985.13Sep 3, 4:12 PM ET4:41 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:12 PM ET23.4483
Projected value at 4:41 PM ET43.153
Actual value at 4:41 PM ET35.1406
Projected change across the window+19.7047
Actual change across the window+11.6923
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.69 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (4:13 PM ET), where they sat 2.00468 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (4:25 PM ET) with a gap of 46.8602. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (4:34 PM ET), a move of -20.1338. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:13 PM27.062125.0575-2.00468
64:18 PM39.74110.8489-28.8921
124:24 PM42.528385.9136+43.3853
184:30 PM42.829777.1186+34.2889
244:36 PM42.915228.0952-14.8199
294:41 PM43.15335.1406-8.01241

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.