Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 2:06 PM to 2:35 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 2:06 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 19.1375. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:35 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.3351.4789.61Sep 3, 2:06 PM ET2:35 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:06 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.3351.4789.61Sep 3, 2:06 PM ET2:35 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:06 PM ET19.1375
Projected value at 2:35 PM ET51.959
Actual value at 2:35 PM ET61.9139
Projected change across the window+32.8214
Actual change across the window+42.7764
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (2:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.76288 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:06 PM ET) with a gap of 66.2003. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (2:35 PM ET), a move of -23.6818. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:07 PM79.880622.6811-57.1994
62:12 PM65.670718.6715-46.9992
122:18 PM51.219135.7828-15.4364
182:24 PM52.798491.0546+38.2561
242:30 PM52.5986.2928+33.7028
292:35 PM51.95961.9139+9.95498

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.