Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 1:40 PM to 2:09 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 3, 2026 at 1:40 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 94.1435. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:09 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

28.9259.4890.04Sep 3, 1:40 PM ET2:09 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 1:40 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

28.9259.4890.04Sep 3, 1:40 PM ET2:09 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:40 PM ET94.1435
Projected value at 2:09 PM ET54.8258
Actual value at 2:09 PM ET46.6788
Projected change across the window-39.3177
Actual change across the window-47.4647
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (1:43 PM ET), where they sat 0.307454 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (1:51 PM ET) with a gap of 39.1047. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (1:43 PM ET), a move of -23.6818. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:41 PM71.944991.7578+19.8129
61:46 PM53.231761.9089+8.67714
121:52 PM54.230492.9349+38.7045
181:58 PM53.025624.8188-28.2068
242:04 PM54.142276.9726+22.8304
292:09 PM54.825846.6788-8.14702

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.