Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 15 minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 10:26 AM to 5:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 9, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 15 minute chart read 83.1956. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.4545.678.74Sep 9, 10:26 AM ET5:41 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 10:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.4545.678.74Sep 9, 10:26 AM ET5:41 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:26 AM ET83.1956
Projected value at 5:41 PM ET39.1625
Actual value at 5:41 PM ET46.3659
Projected change across the window-44.0331
Actual change across the window-36.8297
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.20×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.20 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (2:56 PM ET), where they sat 1.61163 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (3:56 PM ET) with a gap of 35.7273. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (1:11 PM ET), a move of -25.9868. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:41 AM82.456778.6552-3.80152
611:56 AM56.811947.9675-8.84447
121:26 PM40.462621.1049-19.3576
182:56 PM46.536548.1481+1.61163
244:26 PM40.339612.9171-27.4225
295:41 PM39.162546.3659+7.2034

About Stochastic %K on a 15 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 15 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.