Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — M2K, 5 minute chart, November 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 11, 2026, 4:46 PM to 7:11 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 11, 2026 at 4:46 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the M2K 5 minute chart read 82.7106. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:11 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.3649.8780.39Nov 11, 4:46 PM ET7:11 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:46 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.3649.8780.39Nov 11, 4:46 PM ET7:11 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:46 PM ET82.7106
Projected value at 7:11 PM ET44.6594
Actual value at 7:11 PM ET28.0539
Projected change across the window-38.0512
Actual change across the window-54.6568
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (5:51 PM ET), where they sat 0.580764 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (6:21 PM ET) with a gap of 43.4568. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (7:06 PM ET), a move of -21.82. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:51 PM72.185783.8095+11.6238
65:16 PM59.937272.3865+12.4493
125:46 PM61.135864.8318+3.69601
186:16 PM38.84272.2222+33.3802
246:46 PM35.978268.0365+32.0584
297:11 PM44.659428.0539-16.6056

About Stochastic %K on a 5 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of M2K activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.