Fast Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 500 minute chart, October 19, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 19, 2026, 4:44 PM to 6:24 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On October 19, 2026 at 4:44 PM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 500 minute chart read 39.5349. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:24 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.20251.7494.29Oct 19, 4:44 PM ET6:24 PM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:44 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.20251.7494.29Oct 19, 4:44 PM ET6:24 PM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:44 PM ET39.5349
Projected value at 6:24 PM ET84.4293
Actual value at 6:24 PM ET97.3333
Projected change across the window+44.8945
Actual change across the window+57.7984
Bars moving the same direction17 of 28
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.78×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.78 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 61% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (11:24 AM ET), where they sat 0.140716 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (12:24 PM ET) with a gap of 77.9972. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (3:04 AM ET), a move of +42.1018. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:04 AM46.812636.0465-10.7661
66:44 PM91.935418.4615-73.4739
128:44 PM72.189792.1053+19.9156
1810:44 PM28.893879.3103+50.4165
2412:44 AM61.2226100+38.7774
296:24 PM84.429397.3333+12.904

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 500 minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 500 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 250 hours of trading, so the window above describes 250 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.