Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 2, 2026, 4:00 PM to 4:29 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 2, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 98.6486. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:29 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.3456.593.66Oct 2, 4:00 PM ET4:29 PM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:00 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.3456.593.66Oct 2, 4:00 PM ET4:29 PM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:00 PM ET98.6486
Projected value at 4:29 PM ET61.7276
Actual value at 4:29 PM ET77.3994
Projected change across the window-36.921
Actual change across the window-21.2493
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.74×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.74 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (4:02 PM ET), where they sat 1.3076 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (4:06 PM ET) with a gap of 63.0736. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (4:06 PM ET), a move of -46.89. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:01 PM72.780390.4306+17.6503
64:06 PM77.427614.3541-63.0736
124:12 PM69.64164.7059-4.93516
184:18 PM58.883593.5115+34.6279
244:24 PM59.056386.3524+27.296
294:29 PM61.727677.3994+15.6718

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.